The Worldwide Model

First off the bat! Apologies for the several week hiatus, could not be helped really though I am afraid!

Since I last posted a lots has happened!

Let’s start by taking a look at the most recent happenings. As people may recall I made some predictions at the start of the year, some of which were a long time coming, others a bit less desirable. So far it seems like within Q1 of 2008 most of those have come true though. While not the biggest shock that they have come true, I admit I thought those predictions would last for at least the rest of the year…

Most recently in the list of fulfilled predictions comes from Gonzo. In their dash to be first out of the barn, GDH have announced they plan to release their latest shows simultaneously worldwide. Using several of the latest streaming sites such as BOST TV, Crunchyroll and Youtube.

Seems reasonable so far doesn’t it? Finally a company listening to what the fans want and giving worldwide release online so fansubbers can pack up their bags and go home, right?

Most of the industry, fandom et al seem to have several questions on their mind right now, primarily though:

1) Who’s going to be translating it?

2) How long will it take for fansub groups to come up with new reasons to release subs illegally for the shows.

3) Is there really a profit to be made from the current model that seems to be coming into place?

4) Why now?

The one lodged at the back of my head though is “Why now?”. It’s not a big secret at present that getting a worldwide release structure established is not far off anyone in Japan’s agenda at present – like it or not for the distributors in the UK and US.

It’s also not a big secret that Gonzo aren’t the only ones stirring their cauldrons, cackling wildly and preparing digital distribution plans of their own for launch. With Gonzo’s latest titles being close to release and until recently CrunchyRoll.com being enveloped by Cease and Desist orders from Japanese licensers you have to wonder how far ahead this business model has been planned.

Likening it all to the Tortoise and the Hare for a moment – there are at least two other companies that spring to mind who could well be ready to make moves shortly for worldwide distribution. One of these companies already has the Japanese infrastructure so basically just needs to set up client-side servers in the relevant countries to get the system running. When you look at it like that, the real battle for the worldwide audiences may well have just began and while using established sites like YouTube and BOST is clever – it’s not an exactly lucrative financial model. You’re sharing the profit with several different companies and hardly raking in the cash from a crowd who were downloading only before, even if you throw in some download to own scheme that was sufficiently DRM-free.

Meanwhile, the other companies who have been planning models for worldwide distribution and have waited patiently in the background can sit and see how well Gonzo does whilst refining their models. One thing is for sure, by the end of 2008 there will likely be more than one company releasing titles worldwide immediately and more than likely the first one to do so may not profit the most from it…

For example – you may have series x out on Youtube with download to own from your own site. Jolly good. Now how do you keep people coming back for more? Releasing every series coming out from now on works – but there’s still going to be long gaps between as new series are produced and only a few shows per season for Gonzo will come up. Looking from another corner of the industry, unless pieces of the puzzle have not been shown to everyone yet, something seems lacking from the model. While the PR effect of this for them is undeniable – it’s dubious as to whether they’ll actually profit from it greatly. By the end of 2008 whether there has been a profit or not should be apparent one way or another though!

What does this mean for the UK/EU market? What about DVD distribution? That almost merits a post of its own to be frank – there’s certainly a lot to talk about – so stay tuned for that in the near future.

Updates are back to a regular basis now I promise!

References:

BOST TV: http://www.bosttv.com/gonzo/

Crunchyroll.com: www.crunchyroll.com

CrunchRoll.com scandal story: ANN Article.

Youtube: http://jp.youtube.com/user/GONZODOGA